Managing the Risks of Future BC COVID-19 Outbreaks Using Mathematical and Statistical Modelling.

Cases of COVID-19 have gone undetected, likely causing future waves. The aim of our research is to develop mathematical and statistical tools for the early detection of future BC COVID-19 waves, and to evaluate control strategies for a future wave. A key component is the estimation of unreported cases and the probability of transmission in high-risk subgroups (such as the elderly and homeless). Our mathematical model will determine disease spread and testing policies interactions. We will then identify early detection strategies for future waves. To track the patterns of individual behaviours and evaluate intervention strategies, we will develop a computer simulation model. With other provinces facing the same problems, our tools can be applied to the national pandemic.